Bullet Heads -- Proposed Arizona statute on bullet serialization

May 22, 2008

A few earnest souls – or possibly jokers -- have introduced a bill into the Arizona State Legislature requiring the encoding of bullets and cartridge cases. You can read the full text of the bill (HB 2833), which sounds like it was written by a 3rd grader, at http://www.azleg.gov/FormatDocument.asp?inDoc=/legtext/48leg/2r/bills/hb2833p.htm but the germane portions read as follows:

A. BEGINNING JANUARY 1, 2009, A MANUFACTURER SHALL CODE ALL HANDGUN AND ASSAULT WEAPON AMMUNITION THAT IS MANUFACTURED OR SOLD IN THIS STATE. THIS SECTION APPLIES TO ALL CALIBERS.
B. BEGINNING JANUARY 1, 2011, A PRIVATE CITIZEN OR A RETAIL VENDOR SHALL DISPOSE OF ALL NONCODED AMMUNITION THAT IS OWNED OR HELD BY THE CITIZEN OR VENDOR.
C. THE DEPARTMENT SHALL ESTABLISH AND MAINTAIN AN AMMUNITION CODING SYSTEM DATABASE CONTAINING A MANUFACTURER REGISTRY AND A VENDOR REGISTRY.
D. A MANUFACTURER SHALL:

1. REGISTER WITH THE DEPARTMENT IN A MANNER PRESCRIBED BY THE DEPARTMENT BY RULE.
2. MAINTAIN RECORDS ON THE BUSINESS PREMISES FOR AT LEAST SEVEN YEARS CONCERNING ALL SALES, LOANS AND TRANSFERS OF AMMUNITION TO, FROM OR WITHIN THIS STATE.
3. ENCODE AMMUNITION PROVIDED FOR RETAIL SALE FOR REGULATED FIREARMS IN A MANNER THAT THE DIRECTOR ESTABLISHES SO THAT:

(A) THE BASE OF THE BULLET AND THE INSIDE OF THE CARTRIDGE CASING OF EACH ROUND IN A BOX OF AMMUNITION ARE CODED WITH THE SAME SERIAL NUMBER.
(B) EACH SERIAL NUMBER IS ENGRAVED IN SUCH A MANNER THAT IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO PERMIT IDENTIFICATION AFTER AMMUNITION DISCHARGE AND BULLET IMPACT.
(C) THE OUTSIDE OF EACH BOX OF AMMUNITION IS LABELED WITH THE NAME OF THE MANUFACTURER AND THE SAME SERIAL NUMBER USED ON THE CARTRIDGE CASINGS AND BASES OF BULLETS CONTAINED IN THE BOX.

Now, one would think that the utter failure of the various ballistic fingerprinting schemes tried in Maryland and New York would give these dufi pause. They might, for example, care to read the report of the Maryland State Police Forensic Sciences Division on the failure of the Maryland Integrated Ballistics Identification System (MD-IBIS) which stated that “there have been no crime investigations that have been enhanced or expedited through the use of MD-IBIS” despite the state’s having squandered millions of dollars on it -- not of course counting the vastly greater cost of time wasted by citizens and businesses in complying with the idiotic scheme.

But really, why bother. If the legislators had applied simple decision theory techniques and constructed a decision tree, they would have seen instantly the folly of their proposal. But I know they are analytically challenged so I’ll do it for them.

Decision treee showing profound stupidity of bullet encoding scheme

NOTES:

1. Anyone familiar with firearms knows that a rifle bullet usually passes completely through the body and is never found. It is, in fact, extremely unlikely that a bullet from a high-powered rifle will NOT pass through the body. Of course, if these learned legislators looked at FBI statistics they would see that only 4% of gun homicides are committed with rifles and that their obsession with “assault weapons” is a waste of time anyway.
2. See report of the ATF’s Youth Crime Interdiction Initiative.

Well, there you have it. The probabilities in the decision tree are my own estimates and are just that – estimates. But they would have to change an awful lot to have a significant effect on the result. Overall, bullet and cartridge serialization is such a profoundly stupid idea it amazes me that anyone could seriously suggest it.

So, why would someone suggest it? Well, there are two possibilities. One is that the sponsors of this bill are just trying to stir the pot for the confusion of their adversaries, rather like Sir Abraham Haphazard:

Sir Abraham Haphazard was deeply engaged in preparing a bill for the mortification of papists, to be called the "Convent Custody Bill," the purport of which was to enable any Protestant clergyman over fifty years of age to search any nun whom he suspected of being in possession of treasonable papers or Jesuitical symbols; and as there were to be a hundred and thirty-seven clauses in the bill, each clause containing a separate thorn for the side of the papist, and as it was known the bill would be fought inch by inch, by fifty maddened Irishmen, the due construction and adequate dovetailing of it did consume much of Sir Abraham's time. The bill had all its desired effect. Of course it never passed into law; but it so completely divided the ranks of the Irish members, who had bound themselves together to force on the ministry a bill for compelling all men to drink Irish whiskey, and all women to wear Irish poplins, that for the remainder of the session the Great Poplin and Whiskey League was utterly harmless. (Anthony Trollope, The Warden, Ch. 7)

On the other hand they could be earnest but uncritical advocates of the ammunition serialization idea, which has been proposed in other states by other earnest and uncritical people. In this case they would be less like Sir Abraham Haphazard and more like the radical utopian Andrei Semyonovich Lebezyatnikov:

He was one of that countless and multifarious legion of nondescripts, putrescent abortions, and uninformed obstinate fools who instantly and infallibly attach themselves to the most fashionable current idea, with the immediate effect of vulgarizing it and of turning into a ridiculous caricature any cause they serve, however sincerely. (Feodor Dostoevsky, Crime and Punishment, Part V, Chapter 1)

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